"edited by Bassam Fattouh and Jonathan Stern"

Recent events in Libya and Bahrain have been of great concern to many foreign investors, operators and governments concerned with the potential threat of disruption of gas supplies. So far, for Europe, it is fortunate that gas imports from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have not been affected significantly. This book explains the importance of this region’s gas resources to the world.

What is this publication about?

This book examines the possibility that the MENA region could face a possible ‘gas crisis’ by the end of the decade, which will result in much lower levels of exports than has been expected from a region that contains an estimated 40% of the world’s gas reserves. It examines and comments on the individual trends and policies that affect each of the markets that make up the MENA region.

What is the purpose of this book?

The purpose of this book is to fill in some of the large information gaps that exist that make up the gas markets of the MENA region. Unfortunately, for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies research team led by Bassam Fattouh and Jonathan Stern, this task has proven an immensely difficult one, due to the prevalent secretive decision making culture of the region, that regards much data freely available in the West as a state or commercial secret. Even so, despite the local difficulties the research team had to overcome, the resultant work is packed full of interesting facts, insights and observations.

What are the main problems the MENA region faces?

The main problem facing the region is the likelihood of increasing occurrences of gas shortages. Many MENA markets are experiencing 6% per annum in growth in demand. Unfortunately, a failure to maintain growth in investment in new productive capacity has already resulted in disruption to supplies to gas power stations in countries such as Egypt. It is becoming clear that many gas producers are beginning to fail to keep up with domestic demand. Now, major gas exporters such as Qatar and Egypt have moratoria on additional gas exports while Iran, with the second largest reserves in the world, has been a net gas importer for more than a decade. It is likely many traditional gas exporters will be reducing gas exports in order to maintain domestic gas exports, while others, at least in the short term will switch to burning domestically produced oil for power generation purposes. It is clear from reading this book, that growing problems exist in this gas rich region, despite many states holding an estimated 50 to 100 years of gas reserves, at current production levels.

The book’s writers make clear that unless the necessary policies are adopted, particularly in relation to pricing of domestic gas, the region will fail to meet future growth in demand resulting either in reduced exports or increased imports.

It is clear overall; the writers paint a bleak gas future for the region in terms of gas exports. International buyers in Europe and East Asia should not expect any substantial increases MENA gas exports despite the completion of existing major projects in Qatar, together with modest additional potential in Iraq and Israel, which should facilitate future gas exports from these states.

Overall, this book should be made required reading for any future MENA energy minister or policy maker. It makes very clear the problems that MENA markets face and provides a useful set of insights on how to avoid the possible gas crisis that could hit the region. The only real puzzle will be are the governments of the region willing to take the tough decisions that will avoid a gas crisis in the Middle East. However, in my view, it is essential for the region, that the region’s governments create a single integrated energy market and policies, similar to that of its neighbour the European Union.





Edited by Bassam Fattouh, Director, Oil and Middle East Programme, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Professor in Finance and Management of the Middle East, SOAS, UK, and Jonathan Stern, Director, Natural Gas Research Programme, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, UK

Contributors:
Siamak Adibi, Head of Middle East Gas Team, FACTS Global Energy, Singapore
Randa Alami, Teaching Fellow, SOAS, University of London, UK
Andrew Cleary, Integrity Research and Consultancy
Hakim Darbouche, Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, UK
Justin Dargin, Research Fellow, Dubai Initiative, Harvard University, USA
Bassam Fattouh, Professor of Finance, SOAS and Senior Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, UK
Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman, FACTS Global Energy, Singapore
Andy Flower, Independent Consultant, Surrey, UK
Franz Gerner, Senior Energy Economist, The World Bank, Washington DC, USA
David Ledesma, Independent Consultant and Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, UK
Robert Mabro, Honorary President, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, UK
Waniss Otman, General Manager Joint Exploration, Exploitation and Petroleum Services Company, Tunisia
Ian Rutledge, Director of SERIS (Sheffield Energy and Resources Information Services) University of Sheffield, UK
Jonathan Stern, Director, Natural Gas Research Programme, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, UK
Silvana Tordo, Lead Energy Economist at the Oil, Gas and Mining Policy Division of the World Bank
Lorian Yacoub, Research Doctoral Candidate, University of Sheffield, UK






Published by the Oxford University Press for OIES
Price: £45.00
234x156mm
978-0-19-959301-9 | Hardback
To order please email margaret.ko@oxfordenergy.org
57 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6FA UK
Telephone: 44 (0)1865 311377 Fax: 44 (0)1865 310527
e-mail: information@oxfordenergy.org http://www.oxfordenergy.org
Bassam Fattouh is a Professor in Finance and Management of the Middle East at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London; and Director of the Oil Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Jonathan Stern is Director of Gas Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies; Honorary Professor at the Centre for Energy, petroleum and Mineral Law & Policy, University of Dundee, and Visiting Professor at Imperial College’s Centre for Environmental Policy.
57 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6FA UK
Telephone: 44 (0)1865 311377 Fax: 44 (0)1865 310527
e-mail: information@oxfordenergy.org http://www.oxfordenergy.org